Since “Liberation Day” on April 2, there’s been no shortage of debate about whether new tariffs will send inflation soaring. The headlines have been loud, but if you look past the noise, the bond markets have barely flinched. What’s really going on? It comes down to understanding the difference between short-term price shocks and longer-term…
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Economy:The macro backdrop remains fraught. Trade tensions continue, the dollar is weakening, inflation remains stubborn, and political pressure is mounting on the Fed to cut rates. Notably, the July Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped 0.9%, marking the largest monthly increase in three years and signaling persistent price pressures. The labor market is softening too, July…
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As we head into the fall of 2025, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve. Will they finally cut rates? If so, by how much, and when? Here’s the bottom line from the latest numbers: So what do the “seven simple monetary policy rules” (Cleveland Fed) and the Philadelphia Fed’s benchmarking say? Most classic rules…
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President Trump’s 2025 tariffs represent a bold and controversial reassertion of economic nationalism. While these measures have generated significant federal revenue and offered protection to key domestic industries, they’ve also led to higher consumer prices, job losses, and strained global relationships. As the global economy reacts and U.S. households feel the pinch, the long-term implications…
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The tariff headwinds are no longer just a political talking point; they’re a disruptive force businesses can’t afford to ignore. While investors had priced in a broad 10–15% tariff baseline earlier this year, many are now confronting the reality of reciprocal tariffs ranging from 15% to 50%, with key partners like the EU, India, Japan,…
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It’s been a strange year for the U.S. stock market. Despite a wave of new tariffs and persistent warnings about valuation, the S&P 500 keeps breaking records. What’s behind this resilience? The answer, it turns out, is a mix of robust corporate earnings, sector-wide growth, and unshaken faith in the future of artificial intelligence. Corporate…
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June PPI: A Tale of Two EconomiesThe latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a clear divergence: while overall prices remained flat in June (0.0% MoM), the details tell a more nuanced story. Goods prices rose +0.3%, while services prices declined –0.1%, a reflection of America’s dual-track inflation story.…
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America stands at a fiscal crossroads. With the national debt soaring past $36 trillion and structural reform stymied by political gridlock, the risk of long-term stagnation is real. But the answer isn’t austerity or fear; it’s strategic, inclusive, and innovation-driven growth. I’m proud to announce the release of my latest book, Escaping the Deficit Trap:…
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Today’s Consumer Price Index report revealed a 2.7% year-over-year increase in June CPI, up from 2.4% in May, with headline CPI rising 0.3% month-over-month and core CPI (excluding food and energy) at 2.9% annually. Key Insights and Implications: 1. Tariff Pass‑Through in Progress – The rollout of 2025 tariffs is now showing up in core…
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This morning’s jobs report looks upbeat at first glance; 147,000 new jobs, 4.1% unemployment—but the headline barely scratches the surface. A few things stand out:• The private sector added just 74,000 jobs, its weakest showing in eight months. ADP actually reported a loss of 33,000 private-sector jobs in June. Most of the growth (about 73,000…
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