The latest September 2026 inflation data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics show that consumer prices rose 3.7% over the past 12 months, while producer prices surged 6.3%. But rising prices are only part of the affordability problem. What if the price you see is not the price someone else sees? As major airlines,…
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Is this a strong rally, or a narrow one? According to Reuters’ October 12 analysis:• More than 40% of S&P 500 stocks are down year to date.• The median stock is up only about 4%.• Fewer than half are trading above their 200-day moving average. That is a 10-percentage-point gap between the index and the…
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This is not an automatic sell signal. It does mean the market may be entering a less forgiving environment. Higher Treasury yields: • Increase the discount rate applied to future earnings• Raise corporate borrowing costs• Make bonds more attractive relative to stocks• Put pressure on expensive, long-duration growth companies• Narrow the equity risk premium The…
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I really enjoyed presenting my research on the growth of private markets at TSAM New York. My thanks to the organizers, for bringing together such a thoughtful group of investment professionals and creating space for a serious conversation about where asset management is headed. The presentation explored how private markets are moving from a specialized…
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The 10-year Treasury yield was hovering near 4.98% this morning, close to the psychologically important 5% level. Meanwhile, inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target, and August’s rebound in payroll growth has weakened the case for immediate monetary support. Warsh now has three choices: raise rates, hold them at 3.50%–3.75%, or cut. A hike…
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Short Interest SurgesU.S. short interest has climbed from $958 billion in 2023 to $1.5 trillion by late 2025. This level of leverage means that any downturn could force rapid covering, amplifying volatility. If markets rise, crowded shorts could drive sharp squeezes. Positioning risk is now a major volatility factor. Oil and Middle East TensionsRoughly 20…
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After Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole, the Federal Reserve’s path forward is anything but clear. Warsh reaffirmed that price stability, and the 2% inflation target, remain at the core of Fed policy. He cautioned that if inflation doesn’t ease convincingly, “we have work to do.” Markets took notice: odds of a September rate…
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The U.S. national debt has topped $40 trillion, and the 30-year Treasury yield is now at its highest since 2007, above 5%. Meanwhile, China, with the world’s second-largest bond market, is locking in long-term debt at just 2%. What’s really driving this historic gap? Here’s what the data shows: For investors, it’s essential to look…
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In 2026 alone, the top 11 companies in the sector, OpenAI, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Anthropic, CoreWeave, Oracle, SoftBank, AMD, Google, and Meta, moved over $136 billion in direct investments among themselves. Yet when you consolidate these flows, the net new capital entering the system is close to zero. That doesn’t mean the infrastructure isn’t real…
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I believe today’s retail sales report deserves investors’ attention. July sales fell 0.6%, a sharp reversal that underscores how household affordability remains under pressure even as markets price in optimism. Yes, some of the weakness stems from timing quirks, Prime Day moved to June, the World Cup ended in July, gas prices dropped, but these…
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