I really enjoyed presenting my research on the growth of private markets at TSAM New York. My thanks to the organizers, for bringing together such a thoughtful group of investment professionals and creating space for a serious conversation about where asset management is headed. The presentation explored how private markets are moving from a specialized…
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The 10-year Treasury yield was hovering near 4.98% this morning, close to the psychologically important 5% level. Meanwhile, inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target, and August’s rebound in payroll growth has weakened the case for immediate monetary support. Warsh now has three choices: raise rates, hold them at 3.50%–3.75%, or cut. A hike…
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Short Interest SurgesU.S. short interest has climbed from $958 billion in 2023 to $1.5 trillion by late 2025. This level of leverage means that any downturn could force rapid covering, amplifying volatility. If markets rise, crowded shorts could drive sharp squeezes. Positioning risk is now a major volatility factor. Oil and Middle East TensionsRoughly 20…
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