At the Economic Club of Miami last week, Dr. Stephen Miran offered a sharp perspective on the Federal Reserve’s current policy mix. The ongoing market focus on rate cuts, he argued, overlooks the equal weight of quantitative tightening (QT). These two levers, interest rates and balance sheet reduction, work in tandem, not as replacements. Here’s…
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Recent market behavior shows a widening divergence between equities and fixed income in how risk is being priced, especially around geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations. Earlier this week, equity index futures swung sharply on headlines tied to tensions involving Israel, the United States, and Iran. S&P 500 futures initially pointed to a ~1.8–2.2% decline overnight,…
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The Fed just held the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%, standing pat in the face of mounting inflation pressure. Markets are betting on rate cuts soon. The real data says otherwise. Look at oil: Brent may be near $108, but in tight regions, physical barrels are clearing at $160–$175, a staggering $60–$70 premium. Physical premiums…
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Markets can’t afford to ignore this morning’s January PCE data. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge tells the story: Core PCE climbed 0.4% for the month and is hovering around 2.9–3.0% YoY, still well above target. Headline PCE is right there too, at about 2.9%. The era of easy disinflation looks over. But the real story…
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February CPI Snapshot: Inflation risks are shifting from demand to geopolitics. Key indicators to watch: Brent oil prices, gasoline CPI, and transportation costs. #Inflation #CPI #EnergyPrices #FedPolicy #MacroEconomics #NedGandevani
Something dangerous is quietly brewing in the global economy, and the past 72 hours have made that crystal clear. Over the weekend, Saudi Arabia sent a major signal to the markets: it started cutting oil production, not out of choice, but because storage tanks are full and exports are stuck. The near-shutdown of the Strait…
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The February jobs report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics paints a clear picture: the labor market is losing traction. Non-farm payrolls shrank by 92,000 in February 2026, the first significant monthly drop in years. January’s payroll gain was revised down to 126,000, while December 2025 actually saw a net loss of 17,000 jobs…
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