March CPI just confirmed what many hoped wasn’t true: inflation isn’t over, it’s adapting, and many investors may still be missing the underlying shift. Here’s what the numbers say:The March 2026 report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows Core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year. That’s not a dramatic spike, but it’s a…
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The March jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (April 3, 2026) delivered a headline gain of +178,000 nonfarm payrolls, a sharp turnaround from February’s −133,000 drop. On the surface, this looks like renewed strength. But a closer look at the numbers points to a labor market that’s stabilizing, not accelerating, and where gains…
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It’s tempting to brush off this week’s volatility as nerves, but the numbers tell a deeper story. Equities have been swinging more than 2% in single sessions, repeatedly. Bonds are holding steady, signaling uncertainty. Oil prices are ripping higher, reshaping the inflation narrative in real time. On the surface, February’s retail sales looked decent: up…
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At the Economic Club of Miami last week, Dr. Stephen Miran offered a sharp perspective on the Federal Reserve’s current policy mix. The ongoing market focus on rate cuts, he argued, overlooks the equal weight of quantitative tightening (QT). These two levers, interest rates and balance sheet reduction, work in tandem, not as replacements. Here’s…
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Recent market behavior shows a widening divergence between equities and fixed income in how risk is being priced, especially around geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations. Earlier this week, equity index futures swung sharply on headlines tied to tensions involving Israel, the United States, and Iran. S&P 500 futures initially pointed to a ~1.8–2.2% decline overnight,…
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The Fed just held the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%, standing pat in the face of mounting inflation pressure. Markets are betting on rate cuts soon. The real data says otherwise. Look at oil: Brent may be near $108, but in tight regions, physical barrels are clearing at $160–$175, a staggering $60–$70 premium. Physical premiums…
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Markets can’t afford to ignore this morning’s January PCE data. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge tells the story: Core PCE climbed 0.4% for the month and is hovering around 2.9–3.0% YoY, still well above target. Headline PCE is right there too, at about 2.9%. The era of easy disinflation looks over. But the real story…
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February CPI Snapshot: Inflation risks are shifting from demand to geopolitics. Key indicators to watch: Brent oil prices, gasoline CPI, and transportation costs. #Inflation #CPI #EnergyPrices #FedPolicy #MacroEconomics #NedGandevani
Something dangerous is quietly brewing in the global economy, and the past 72 hours have made that crystal clear. Over the weekend, Saudi Arabia sent a major signal to the markets: it started cutting oil production, not out of choice, but because storage tanks are full and exports are stuck. The near-shutdown of the Strait…
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The February jobs report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics paints a clear picture: the labor market is losing traction. Non-farm payrolls shrank by 92,000 in February 2026, the first significant monthly drop in years. January’s payroll gain was revised down to 126,000, while December 2025 actually saw a net loss of 17,000 jobs…
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