The latest BLS benchmark revision dropped this morning, and the message is clear: America’s job engine is sputtering. Hiring is losing steam, but here’s the twist, this slowdown isn’t a shock. It’s been baked into the story for months: when both labor supply and demand are low, hiring (and firing) flatlines. What’s Dragging Us Down?…
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This morning’s jobs report delivered a wake-up call: only 22,000 payrolls added vs. 75,000 expected. Hiring momentum is stalling, with June marking the first monthly decline since 2020 and the four-month trend pointing one way, down. What’s behind the slowdown? Why it matters: The U.S. jobs engine is sputtering. The next few months will test…
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At the latest Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, China, India, and Russia made their intentions clear: a push for a more multipolar economic order, new energy pipelines, talk of an SCO development bank, and a concerted pivot toward trade and finance outside the U.S. dollar system. This isn’t just posturing.– Russia is physically rewiring its gas…
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Since 2018, U.S. businesses have faced wave after wave of tariffs, from steel and aluminum to sweeping measures on Chinese imports. The result? Higher costs, squeezed margins, and a whole lot of uncertainty. But if you thought American companies would just take the hit, think again. What’s actually happened is a masterclass in corporate resilience.…
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The Federal Reserve is facing some tough choices right now. With mounting pressure to cut interest rates, potentially anywhere from 25 to 100 basis points, the stakes couldn’t be higher. On one hand, lower rates could help jumpstart economic activity. On the other hand, the risks and ripple effects are hard to ignore. What’s at…
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The story in private markets is changing, and the numbers paint a vivid picture. Inspired by a recent Financial Times article posted by Mohamed El-Erian, I revisited my own data to highlight the growing gap between Private Equity (PE) and Private Credit (PC) fundraising over the past decade. Check out the comparative chart I created…
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This morning, 8/22/25, at Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a major shift in the Fed’s approach. After months of putting inflation front and center, Powell now openly acknowledges growing risks in the labor market. He put it plainly: “Risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside,…
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I’m excited to announce the publication of my new book, The Intelligent Age: How Code, Coin, and Culture Are Reshaping the Digital Economy. This isn’t just another tech book, it’s a roadmap for navigating the most profound shift we’ve seen since the Industrial Revolution. The Intelligent Age dives into the rise of AI, quantum computing,…
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As we head into the fall of 2025, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve. Will they finally cut rates? If so, by how much, and when? Here’s the bottom line from the latest numbers: So what do the “seven simple monetary policy rules” (Cleveland Fed) and the Philadelphia Fed’s benchmarking say? Most classic rules…
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President Trump’s 2025 tariffs represent a bold and controversial reassertion of economic nationalism. While these measures have generated significant federal revenue and offered protection to key domestic industries, they’ve also led to higher consumer prices, job losses, and strained global relationships. As the global economy reacts and U.S. households feel the pinch, the long-term implications…
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