Last Friday, February 27, I had the privilege of attending the Economic Club of Miami, where a diverse lineup of speakers unpacked why Miami is quickly becoming a global financial powerhouse. One highlight was Jim Esposito, President of Citadel, who delivered a sharp, data-driven perspective on how top financial firms are embedding AI, not as…
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U.S. companies crushed it in Q1 2026, with S&P 500 earnings growth hitting about 15% year-over-year, nearly double the ~8% consensus forecast (FactSet, 2026). Normally, such an upside sparks aggressive multiple expansion and soaring stock prices. This time? The market’s reaction has been surprisingly muted. Contrast that with Europe and Asia: European earnings growth lingers…
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The latest BEA data shows the PCE price index rising 0.3% month-over-month, holding steady at 2.8% year-over-year. Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge excluding food and energy, also climbed 0.3% for the month and remains elevated at 2.9% annually. Inflation stubbornly stays above the Fed’s 2% target, highlighting persistent price pressures despite some easing…
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Heading into Friday’s PCE and GDP data releases on February 20th, the market is looking for clarity. But before the numbers drop, it’s important to tune in to what the bond market is already signaling. Despite strong headlines around GDP growth and occasional upbeat payroll reports, Treasury yields are sending a more cautious message. They’re…
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The January 2026 Consumer Price Index paints a familiar but complex picture: headline inflation is easing, but core inflation, especially in services and housing, remains stubbornly elevated. Here’s what the data tell us: What does this mean for markets and policy? Bottom line: Inflation is moving in the right direction, but the path to the…
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January 2026 added 130,000 jobs, keeping unemployment steady at 4.3%. But beneath the surface, the labor market is cooling. December’s gains were just 50,000, and 2025’s job growth is being revised downward. Labor force participation slipped to 62.4%, reflecting fewer available workers amid tighter immigration and white-collar layoffs. Wage growth is slowing too, private sector…
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Bitcoin’s sharp selloff has moved beyond crypto headlines, it’s now a corporate balance-sheet crisis. Since late 2025, Bitcoin plunged from around $126,000 to below $66,000, wiping out over $500 billion in market value within days. This brutal drawdown is exposing fundamental weaknesses in Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) firms that built their strategies on large, leveraged…
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New data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas reveals that U.S. employers announced 108,435 job cuts in January, the largest January total since 2009 and more than double December’s figure from a year ago. Layoffs hit sectors like transportation, technology, healthcare, chemicals, and financial services, with major cuts from companies including Amazon and UPS fueling the…
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January 2026 saw the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dive to 84.5, the lowest since 2014 and beneath key pandemic lows. The Expectations Index plummeted to 65.1, well below the recession-warning threshold of 80, reflecting deepening worries about jobs, income, and economic prospects. What’s behind this sharp decline? 1. Labor Market Anxiety Beneath the SurfaceDespite…
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Last Friday, gold and silver fell sharply alongside equities and crypto after the Fed Chair nomination, sparking talk of “the end of the safe-haven trade.” That’s a misunderstanding. This wasn’t a fundamental rejection of gold, it was a liquidity shock and positioning unwind. Here’s the data: What it means:Short-term price moves reflect market plumbing, not…
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