The $1 Trillion Question: Is AI’s Growth Fueled by Real Demand or Circular Capital?

In 2026 alone, the top 11 companies in the sector, OpenAI, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Anthropic, CoreWeave, Oracle, SoftBank, AMD, Google, and Meta, moved over $136 billion in direct investments among themselves. Yet when you consolidate these flows, the net new capital entering the system is close to zero. That doesn’t mean the infrastructure isn’t real (it is: Amazon and Alphabet spent a combined $220 billion on capex last year), but it does mean that the source of AI’s growth deserves much closer scrutiny.

• Is today’s headline AI revenue being driven by independent demand, or is it mostly the product of capital and commitments recirculating through a tightly knit network?
• What happens if external adoption slows, or the productivity gains don’t materialize at scale?

These are some of the most important questions facing investors, founders, and policymakers in tech.

If you want a deep, data-driven look at the financial feedback loops shaping the future of AI, and what they really mean for the digital economy, read my latest article: https://nedgandevani.nmgfunds.com/articles/

For a broader perspective on how code, coin, and culture are transforming our world, check out my book:
The Intelligent Age: How Code, Coin, and Culture Are Reshaping the Digital Economy

Let’s move the AI conversation beyond hype, and focus on what’s actually driving value.

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