The Fed just held the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%, standing pat in the face of mounting inflation pressure. Markets are betting on rate cuts soon. The real data says otherwise. Look at oil: Brent may be near $108, but in tight regions, physical barrels are clearing at $160–$175, a staggering $60–$70 premium. Physical premiums…
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Markets can’t afford to ignore this morning’s January PCE data. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge tells the story: Core PCE climbed 0.4% for the month and is hovering around 2.9–3.0% YoY, still well above target. Headline PCE is right there too, at about 2.9%. The era of easy disinflation looks over. But the real story…
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February CPI Snapshot: Inflation risks are shifting from demand to geopolitics. Key indicators to watch: Brent oil prices, gasoline CPI, and transportation costs. #Inflation #CPI #EnergyPrices #FedPolicy #MacroEconomics #NedGandevani
Something dangerous is quietly brewing in the global economy, and the past 72 hours have made that crystal clear. Over the weekend, Saudi Arabia sent a major signal to the markets: it started cutting oil production, not out of choice, but because storage tanks are full and exports are stuck. The near-shutdown of the Strait…
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The February jobs report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics paints a clear picture: the labor market is losing traction. Non-farm payrolls shrank by 92,000 in February 2026, the first significant monthly drop in years. January’s payroll gain was revised down to 126,000, while December 2025 actually saw a net loss of 17,000 jobs…
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Last Friday, February 27, I had the privilege of attending the Economic Club of Miami, where a diverse lineup of speakers unpacked why Miami is quickly becoming a global financial powerhouse. One highlight was Jim Esposito, President of Citadel, who delivered a sharp, data-driven perspective on how top financial firms are embedding AI, not as…
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U.S. companies crushed it in Q1 2026, with S&P 500 earnings growth hitting about 15% year-over-year, nearly double the ~8% consensus forecast (FactSet, 2026). Normally, such an upside sparks aggressive multiple expansion and soaring stock prices. This time? The market’s reaction has been surprisingly muted. Contrast that with Europe and Asia: European earnings growth lingers…
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The latest BEA data shows the PCE price index rising 0.3% month-over-month, holding steady at 2.8% year-over-year. Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge excluding food and energy, also climbed 0.3% for the month and remains elevated at 2.9% annually. Inflation stubbornly stays above the Fed’s 2% target, highlighting persistent price pressures despite some easing…
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Heading into Friday’s PCE and GDP data releases on February 20th, the market is looking for clarity. But before the numbers drop, it’s important to tune in to what the bond market is already signaling. Despite strong headlines around GDP growth and occasional upbeat payroll reports, Treasury yields are sending a more cautious message. They’re…
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The January 2026 Consumer Price Index paints a familiar but complex picture: headline inflation is easing, but core inflation, especially in services and housing, remains stubbornly elevated. Here’s what the data tell us: What does this mean for markets and policy? Bottom line: Inflation is moving in the right direction, but the path to the…
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