The Fed just cut rates by 25 basis points, dropping its target from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%. You’d expect this sort of move if inflation was cooling off, but that’s not the picture right now. Here’s the economic backdrop:• GDP’s humming along: Q2 growth hit 3.8% annualized.• Inflation? Not going away. It climbed to about 2.9%…
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The Federal Reserve is heading into its next policy meeting in unfamiliar territory, and with critical data missing just as inflation ticks higher. What’s new:• ADP stunned markets in September with a 32,000 private-sector job loss, a big swing from the 50,000 job gain economists had called for.• ADP has halted its real-time payroll feed,…
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A pivotal test looms for the Federal Reserve: its next policy decision arrives just as its go-to labor-market gauges have gone dark. Consider these stats:• In September 2025, ADP reported a loss of 32,000 private-sector jobs, a dramatic reversal from the +50,000 economists expected.• August’s numbers were quietly revised down, flipping from growth to a…
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Rare earths might sound obscure, but they’re the quiet force behind EV motors, wind turbines, fighter jets, and smartphones. And right now, the global balance of power over these materials tells a serious story (Sources: USGS 2024; CSIS 2025; Adamas Intelligence 2025) Meanwhile, the U.S. is rebuilding its supply chain from the ground up, but…
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As gold prices soar and markets brace for another volatile cycle, we’re witnessing more than a flight to safety, we’re seeing the early signals of a structural shift in the global reserve system. My latest paper, “From Gold to Blockchain: Toward a Synthetic Reserve Regime, Pathways, Risks, and Evidence,” explores how institutional ETF inflows, rising…
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The AI build-out is breathtaking, but who’s really paying for it? From NVIDIA’s $5B investment in Intel to AMD’s equity-linked deal with OpenAI, my latest research uncovers a growing trend: AI vendors are financing their own buyers to sustain explosive growth. That’s not organic demand, it’s circular capital, a self-reinforcing money loop where financing feeds…
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The AI infrastructure race is accelerating, but what if part of it is running in circles? Ned Gandevani reveals how “circular financing”, where chipmakers and hyperscalers finance their customers’ hardware purchases, may be inflating both sales and valuations. NVIDIA, AMD, and others are effectively funding their own demand, creating what looks like exponential growth. But…
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The S&P 500 is on fire, but maybe for the wrong reasons.Just 10 stocks now make up nearly 40% of the entire index, a level of concentration not seen in decades. Nvidia alone represents more than 8% of the S&P 500. Add to that a record-breaking $1.9 trillion global buyback boom, fueled by Fed easing…
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That’s how much the U.S. economy loses every single day the government shuts down. For consumers, that translates into: In today’s fragile economic climate, can we really afford to throw away billions over political gridlock? I built a Shutdown Impact Calculator so you can see the numbers for yourself. Just enter the number of days…
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Think the Fed’s latest rate cut will bring hiring back to life? The data says: not so fast. Corporate America is cautious. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 41% of firms report delaying hiring or investment decisions due to policy uncertainty. Tariffs have raised input costs by 10–15% in key sectors, according to…
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