A pivotal test looms for the Federal Reserve: its next policy decision arrives just as its go-to labor-market gauges have gone dark. Consider these stats:• In September 2025, ADP reported a loss of 32,000 private-sector jobs, a dramatic reversal from the +50,000 economists expected.• August’s numbers were quietly revised down, flipping from growth to a…
Read more
Rare earths might sound obscure, but they’re the quiet force behind EV motors, wind turbines, fighter jets, and smartphones. And right now, the global balance of power over these materials tells a serious story (Sources: USGS 2024; CSIS 2025; Adamas Intelligence 2025) Meanwhile, the U.S. is rebuilding its supply chain from the ground up, but…
Read more
As gold prices soar and markets brace for another volatile cycle, we’re witnessing more than a flight to safety, we’re seeing the early signals of a structural shift in the global reserve system. My latest paper, “From Gold to Blockchain: Toward a Synthetic Reserve Regime, Pathways, Risks, and Evidence,” explores how institutional ETF inflows, rising…
Read more
The AI build-out is breathtaking, but who’s really paying for it? From NVIDIA’s $5B investment in Intel to AMD’s equity-linked deal with OpenAI, my latest research uncovers a growing trend: AI vendors are financing their own buyers to sustain explosive growth. That’s not organic demand, it’s circular capital, a self-reinforcing money loop where financing feeds…
Read more
The AI infrastructure race is accelerating, but what if part of it is running in circles? Ned Gandevani reveals how “circular financing”, where chipmakers and hyperscalers finance their customers’ hardware purchases, may be inflating both sales and valuations. NVIDIA, AMD, and others are effectively funding their own demand, creating what looks like exponential growth. But…
Read more
The S&P 500 is on fire, but maybe for the wrong reasons.Just 10 stocks now make up nearly 40% of the entire index, a level of concentration not seen in decades. Nvidia alone represents more than 8% of the S&P 500. Add to that a record-breaking $1.9 trillion global buyback boom, fueled by Fed easing…
Read more
That’s how much the U.S. economy loses every single day the government shuts down. For consumers, that translates into: In today’s fragile economic climate, can we really afford to throw away billions over political gridlock? I built a Shutdown Impact Calculator so you can see the numbers for yourself. Just enter the number of days…
Read more
Think the Fed’s latest rate cut will bring hiring back to life? The data says: not so fast. Corporate America is cautious. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 41% of firms report delaying hiring or investment decisions due to policy uncertainty. Tariffs have raised input costs by 10–15% in key sectors, according to…
Read more
The Fed’s September 17 decision to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down to a range of 4.00–4.25%, was firmly grounded in the data, not just an educated guess. Nonfarm payrolls grew by only 22,000 jobs in the latest report, far below the 2022 monthly average of over 300,000. Unemployment…
Read more
The numbers say it all: over the past decade, technology capital expenditures have been the power source behind S&P 500 earnings growth. When tech giants invest, whether it’s in cloud, semiconductors, or AI, index-level profits follow. Look at the swings: after a historic −32.5% earnings drop in 2020, S&P 500 earnings rebounded by 110% in…
Read more